PRAVEEN SWAMI

Kargil’s Shia clerics threaten to derail the Congress’ ride to victory in Ladakh

From a billboard towering over the street, Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini’s grim gaze bears down on a senior Congress leader sent in by his party to salvage its fortunes in the Ladakh Lok Sabha seat. “Things aren’t exactly going according to plan,” he confesses.

Less than a fortnight ago, the Ladakh Lok Sabha seat looked like a shoo-in for the Congress. Party candidate P. Namgyal had the support of the National Conference, because of a pre-election deal which gave the Congress Ladakh, Udhampur and Jammu in return for its backing in Srinagar, Anantnag and Baramulla. Past election patterns in Ladakh suggested that defeat was near impossible.

But earlier this month, Kargil’s powerful Shia clerics set off a landmine that threatens to end the Congress’ apparently unstoppable march to power. Backed by the Islamia School, one of two major seminaries which dominates Kargil’s cultural and religious life, influential National Conference leader Ghulam Hassan Khan is contesting as an Independent.

Mr. Khan’s decision has sparked off political chaos. Ghulam Reza, who hoped to stand as the Congress candidate, has now chosen to do so as an Independent. So, too, has another popular Kargil Congress leader Asghar Karbalie.

Communal divisions

Historically, the Congress and National Conference have been the twin axes of power in Ladakh — an ascendency built on their adroit manipulation of communal anxieties in Muslim-majority Kargil and Buddhist-majority Leh.

Phunsog Namgyal, a Congress veteran, won the Ladakh Lok Sabha seat in the 1984, 1989 and 1996 Lok Sabha elections. In 1998, in part because the growing influence of Buddhist chauvinist groups in Leh eroded the Congress’ constituency, National Conference leader Syed Husain captured the seat. Mr. Khan succeeded him as the party’s candidate in the 1999 Lok Sabha elections, and again won the seat for the National Conference.

But in the 2004 Lok Sabha elections, Independent candidate Thupstan Chhewang successfully rode a rising tide of chauvinist anger in Leh to defeat Mr. Khan by a hefty 25,713 votes. Mr. Chhewang had led a Bharatiya Janata Party-backed movement demanding Union Territory status for Ladakh. The Chhewang-led Ladakh Union Territory Front (LUTF) succeeded in eliminating all political opposition in Leh

By last year’s election to the Jammu and Kashmir Legislative Assembly though, the LUTF had spent itself. Despite the tactical support of both the Congress and BJP, the LUTF could win only the Nobra seat, while the Congress took Leh. For its part, the National Conference demonstrated its influence in Kargil by taking both Kargil and Zanskar; the latter is now represented in the Assembly by Mr. Khan’s son, Feroze Khan.

Not surprisingly, Mr. Khan and the Shia clergy believe the resurgence of the Congress in Leh, and the consequent division of the Buddhist votes in that region, offered an opportunity to restore Kargil’s political primacy.

However, the formation of a National Conference-Congress alliance government, and the subsequent pre-Lok Sabha election seat-sharing deal between the parties, put paid to these hopes.

High turnout?

While Mr. Khan’s rebellion has caused the Congress no small anxiety, the political competition is likely to spur voter turnout.

Elsewhere in Jammu and Kashmir, voter turnout has been relatively low. In the south Kashmir constituency of Anantnag, for example, just 26 percent of voters came out to vote — an improvement over the 10.6 percent recorded in the 2004, but still below half the national average.

Part of the reason for the poor turnout in the Kashmir valley is that both major regional formations, the National Conference and People’s Democratic Party, have tended to ally themselves with ruling formations in New Delhi. Given that there is no great difference in the Jammu and Kashmir policies of the Congress and BJP, voter interest in national government formation is limited.

But in Ladakh, where the Union Government is seen as an arbiter and ally in the communal contestation between Leh and Kargil, interest in Lok Sabha elections tends to be relatively high. Now, with the elections having turned into a test of communal muscle, voter interest could prove more intense than ever.